Литература

Литература

Admati A., Hellwig M. (2013). The bankers’ new clothes: What’s wrong with banking and what to do about it. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Agoritsas T., Courvoisier D. S., Combescure C., Deom M., Perneger T. V. (2011). Does prevalence matter to physicians in estimating post-test probability of disease? A randomized trial. Journal of General Internal Medicine 26, 373–378.

Akerlof G. A., Shiller R. J. (2009). Animal spirits. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

American Dental Association, U. S. Department of Health and Human Services. (2004). The selection of patients for dental radiographic examinations. Report. Retrieved from www.fda.gov/downloads/Radiation-EmittingProducts/RadiationEmittingProductsandProcedures/MedicalImaging/MedicalX-Rays/ucm116505.pdf.

Ariely D. (2008). Predictably irrational. London: HarperCollins.

Arkes H. R., Gaissmaier W. (2012). Psychological research and the prostate-cancer screening controversy. Psychological Science 23, 547–553.

Bachmann L. M., Kolb E., Koller M. T., Steurer J., ter Riet G. (2003). Accuracy of Ottawa ankle rules to exclude fractures of the ankle and mid-foot: Systematic review. British Medical Journal 326, 417–419.

Barber B. M., Odean T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 1, 261–292.

Bearden J. N., Rapoport A., Murphy R. O. (2006). Sequential observation and selection with rank-dependent payoffs: An experimental test of alternative decision rules. Management Science 52, 1437–1449.

Beck U. (1992). Risk society: Toward a new modernity (M. Ritter, Trans.). London: Sage. (Original work published 1986.)

Becker G. S. (1981). A treatise on the family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Begley C. G. (2012, March 28). In cancer science, many «discoveries» don’t hold up. Reuters. Retrieved from www.reuters.com.

Beilock S. L., Bertenthal B. I., McCoy A. M., Carr T. H. (2004). Haste does not always make waste: Expertise, direction of attention, and speed versus accuracy in performing sensorimotor skills. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review 11, 373–379.

Bennis W. M., Katsikopoulos K. V., Goldstein D. G., Dieckmann A., Berg N. (2012). Designed to fit minds: Institutions and ecological rationality. In P. M. Todd, G. Gigerenzer, the ABC Research Group, Ecological rationality. Intelligence in the world (p. 409–427). New York: Oxford University Press.

Berg M., S?reide K. (2011). Prevention: Will an aspirin a day keep the colorectal cancer away? Nature Reviews Clinical Oncology 8, 130–131.

Berg N., Gigerenzer G. (2007). Psychology implies paternalism? Bounded rationality may reduce the rationale to regulate risk taking. Social Choice and Welfare 28, 337–359.

Berlin I. (1967). Two concepts of liberty. In A. Quinton (Ed.), Political philosophy (p. 141–152). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Berrington de Gonz?lez A., Mahesh M., Kim K. P., Bhargavan M., Lewis R., Mettler F., Land C. (2009). Projected cancer risk from computed tomography scans performed in the United States in 2007. Archives of Internal Medicine 169, 2071–2077.

Billari F. C., Prskawetz A., Fent T., Aparicio Diaz B. (2007). The «Wedding-Ring»: An agent-based marriage model based on social interaction. Demographic Research 17, 59–82.

Bingham C. B., and Eisenhardt K. M. (2011). Rational heuristics: The «simple rules» that strategists learn from process experience. Strategic Management Journal 32, 1437–1464.

Bomlitz L. J., Brezis M. (2008). Misrepresentation of health risks by mass media. Journal of Public Health 30, 202–204.

Bond M. (2009). Risk school. Nature 461, 1189–1192.

Bower B. (2011, June 4). Simple heresy. Science News 179, 26–29.

Bramwell R., West H., Salmon P. (2006). Health professionals’ and service users’ interpretation of screening test results: Experimental study. British Medical Journal 333, 284–286.

Brandt A. M. (2007). The cigarette century. New York: Basic Books.

Brenner D. J. (2010). Slowing the increase in the population dose resulting from CT scans. Radiation Research 174, 809–815.

Brenner D. J., Elliston C. D. (2004). Estimated radiation risk potentially associated with full-body CT screening. Radiology 232, 735–738.

Brenner D. J., Hall E. J. (2007). Computed tomography – An increasing source of radiation exposure. New England Journal of Medicine 357, 2277–2284.

Chen X.-Y. (2007). Defensive medicine or economically motivated corruption? A Confucian reflection on physician care in China today. Journal of Medicine and Philosophy 32, 635–648.

Chou R. et al. (2005). Screening for HIV: A review of the evidence for the U. S. Preventive Services Task Force. Annals of Internal Medicine 143, 55–73.

Cohen D., and Carter P. (2010). WHO and the pandemic flu «conspiracies». British Medical Journal 340, 1274–1279.

Cohen I. B. (1998). Howard Aiken on the number of computers needed for the nation. IEEE Annals of the History of Computing 20, 27–32.

Covey J. (2007). A meta-analysis of the effects of presenting treatment benefits in different formats. Medical Decision Making 27, 638–654.

Cosmides L., and Tooby J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition 58, 1–73.

Czerlinski J., Gigerenzer G., Goldstein D. G. (1999). How good are simple heuristics? In G. Gigerenzer, P. M. Todd, the ABC Research Group, Simple heuristics that make us smart (p. 97–118). New York: Oxford University Press.

Daston L. J. (1988). Classical probability in the Enlightenment. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Doll R., Peto R., Boreham J., Sutherland I. (2004). Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years’ observations on male British doctors. British Medical Journal 328, 1519.

Delongchamps N. B., Sing A., Haas G. P. (2006). The role of prevalence in the diagnosis of prostate cancer. Cancer Control 13, 158–168.

DeMiguel V., Garlappi L., Uppal R. (2009). Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1/ N portfolio strategy? Review of Financial Studies 22, 1915–1953.

Dewey J. (1929). The quest for certainty. New York: Minton, Balch and Co.

Dijksterhuis A., van Knippenberg A., Kruglanski A. W., Schaper C. (1996). Motivated social cognition: Need for closure effects on memory and judgments. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 32, 254–270.

DiPrete T. A. (2007). Is this a great country? Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 25, 89–95.

Djulbegovic M., Beyth R. J., Neuberger M. M., Stoffs T. L., Vieweg J., Djulbegovic B., Dahm P. (2010). Screening for prostate cancer: Systematic review and meta analysis of randomized controlled trials. British Medical Journal 341, c4543.

Doll R., Peto R., Boreham J., Sutherland I. (2004). Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years’ observations on male British doctors. British Medical Journal 328, 1519.

Domenighetti G., Casabianca A., Gutzwiller F., and Martinoli S. (1993). Revisiting the most informed consumer of surgical services: The physician-patient. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 9, 505–513.

Donner-Banzhoff N., Bastian H., Coulter A., Elwyn G., Jonitz G., Klemperer D., Ludwig W. D. (2011). How can better evidence be delivered? In G. Gigerenzer, J. A. Muir Gray (Eds.), Better doctors, better patients, better decisions (p. 215–232). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Doshi P. (2009). Neuraminidase inhibitors: The story behind the Cochrane review. British Medical Journal 330, 1348–1351.

Egidi M., and Marengo L. (2004). Near-decomposability, organization, and evolution: Some notes on Herbert Simon’s contribution. In M. Augier and J. J. March (Eds.), Models of a man: Essays in memory of Herbert A. Simon (p. 335–350). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Ehrenreich B. (2010). Bright-sided: How positive thinking is undermining America. New York: Picador.

Einstein A. (undated). Letter to Max Wertheimer. Albert Einstein Archive, Princeton University Library.

Emanuel E. J. (2008). Healthcare, guaranteed: A simple, secure solution for America. New York: Public Affairs.

Enserink M. (2010, December 24). What’s next for disease eradication? Science 330, 1736–1739. doi: 10.1126/ science. 330.6012.1736.

Finkel E. J., Eastwick P. W., Karney B. R., Reis H. T., Sprecher S. (2012). Online dating: A critical analysis from the perspective of psychological science. Psychological Science in the Public Interest 13, 3–66.

Firman D., Quirk K. (2009). Brace for impact. Deerfield Beach, FL: Health Communications, Inc.

Flegal K. M., Graubard B. I., Williamson D. F., Gail M. H. (2005). Excess deaths associated with underweight, overweight, and obesity. Journal of the American Medical Association 293, 861–1867.

Folkman J., Kalluri R. (2004). Cancer without disease. Nature 427, 787. doi: 10. 1038 /427787a

Franklin B. (1745). Letter to a friend (Philadelphia, June 25, 1745). Retrieved from www.bibliomania.com/2/9/77/124/21473/1/frameset.html.

Franklin B. (1779). Letter to Jonathan Williams (Passy, April 8, 1779). In A. H. Smyth (Ed.), The writings of Benjamin Franklin (Vol. VII. p. 281–282). New York: Macmillan.

Friedman D. (2004). Monty Hall’s three doors: Construction and deconstruction of a choice anomaly. American Economic Review 88, 933–946.

Friedman D., Nakhoda A. (2008, August). Monty Hall Problem. Learning and Experimental Economics Projects of Santa Cruz (LEEPS), University of Santa Cruz. Retrieved from leeps.ucsc.edu/misc/page/monty-hall-puzzle/.

Furedi A. (1999). The public health implications of the 1995 «pill scare». Human Reproduction Update 5, 621–626. doi:10.1093/humupd/5.6. 621.

Gaissmaier W. Gigerenzer G. (2012). 9/ 11, act II: A fine-grained analysis of regional variations in traffic fatalities in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks. Psychological Science 23, 1449–1454.

Galesic M., Garcia-Retamero R. (2012). The risks we dread: A social circle account. PLoS ONE, 7, e32837.

Galesic M., Garcia-Retamero R., Gigerenzer G. (2009). Using icon arrays to communicate medical risks to low-numeracy people. Health Psychology 28,

210–216.

Galesic M., Garcia-Retamero R., Gigerenzer G. (2014). Maximizing and satisficing: Personality trait or adaptive strategies? Manuscript, Max Planck Institute for Human Development: Berlin.

Garcia-Retamero R., Galesic M. (2012). Doc, what would you do if you were me? On self-other discrepancies in medical decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 18, 38–51.

Gaskell G., Allansdottir A., Allum N., Corchero C., Fischler C., Hampel, J., et al. (2006). Europeans and biotechnology in 2005: Pattern and trends. Eurobarometer 64.3.

Gawande A. (2009). The checklist manifesto. New York: Metropolitan Books.

Ghosh A. K., Ghosh K. (2005). Translating evidence-based information into effective risk communication: Current challenges and opportunities. Journal of Laboratory and Clinical Medicine 145, 171–180. doi:10.1016/ j.lab.2005.02.006.

Gibson R., Singh J. P. (2010). The treatment trap. Chicago, IL: Dee.

Gigerenzer G. (2000). Adaptive thinking: Rationality in the real world. New York: Oxford University Press.

Gigerenzer G. (2002). Calculated risks: How to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon and Schuster (UK version: Reckoning with risk: Learning to live with uncertainty. London: Penguin).

Gigerenzer G. (2004). Dread risk, September 11, and fatal traffic accidents. Psychological Science 15, 286–287 doi:10.1111/j.0956–7976.200 4.00668.x.

Gigerenzer G. (2006). Out of the frying pan into the fire: Behavioral reactions to terrorist attacks. Risk Analysis 26, 347–351. doi:10.1111/ j.1539–6924.2006.00753.x.

Gigerenzer G. (2007). Gut feelings: The intelligence of the unconscious. New York: Viking (UK version: London: Allen Lane/Penguin).

Gigerenzer G. (2008). Rationality for mortals: How people cope with uncertainty. New York: Oxford University Press.

Gigerenzer G. (2011). What are natural frequencies? Doctors need to find better ways to communicate risk to patients. British Medical Journal 343: d6386.

Gigerenzer G., Brighton H. (2009). Homo heuristicus: Why biased minds make better inferences. Topics in Cognitive Science 1, 107–143.

Gigerenzer G., Fiedler K., Olsson H. (2012). Rethinking cognitive biases as environmental consequences. In P. M. Todd, G. Gigerenzer, the ABC Research Group, Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (p. 80–110). New York: Oxford University Press.

Gigerenzer G., Gaissmaier W., Kurz-Milcke E., Schwartz L. M., Woloshin S. (2007). Helping doctors and patients to make sense of health statistics. Psychological Science in the Public Interest 8, 53–96.

Gigerenzer G., Galesic M. (2012). Why do single event probabilities confuse patients? British Medical Journal 344, e245. doi:0.1136/ bmj.e245.

Gigerenzer G., Galesic M., Garcia-Retamero R. (2013). Stereotypes about men’s and women’s intuitions: A study of two nations. Journal of Cross Cultural Psychology. doi:10.1177/0022022113487074.

Gigerenzer G., Goldstein D. G. (2011). The recognition heuristic: A decade of research. Judgment and Decision Making 6, 100–121.

Gigerenzer G., Hertwig R., van den Broek E., Fasolo B., Katsikopoulos K. V. (2005). «A 30 % chance of rain tomorrow»: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis 25, 623–629.

Gigerenzer G., Hertwig R., and Pachur T. (Eds.) (2011). Heuristics: The foundations of adaptive behavior. New York: Oxford University Press.

Gigerenzer G., Mata, J., Frank R. (2009). Public knowledge of benefits of breast and prostate cancer screening in Europe. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 101(17), 1216–1220. doi:10.1093/jnci/djp237.

Gigerenzer G., Muir Gray J. A. (Eds.) (2011). Better doctors, better patients, better decisions: Envisioning health care 2020. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Gigerenzer G., Selten R. (2001). Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Gigerenzer G., Swijtink Z., Porter T., Daston L., Beatty J., Kr?ger L. (1989). The empire of chance: How probability changed science and everyday life. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Gigerenzer G., Todd P. M., the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. New York: Oxford University Press.

Gigerenzer G., Wegwarth O., Feufel M. (2010). Misleading communication of risk: Editors should enforce transparent reporting in abstracts. British Medical Journal 341, 791–792. doi:10.1136/ bmj.c4830.

Goldstein D. G., Gigerenzer G. (2002). Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. Psychological Review 109, 75–90. doi:10.1037/ 0033–295X.109.1.75.

Goldstein D. G., and Taleb N. N. (2007). We don’t quite know what we are talking about when we talk about volatility. Journal of Portfolio Management 33, 84–86.

Good Stewardship Working Groups (2011). The «top 5» lists in primary care. Archives of Internal Medicine 171, 385–390.

G?tzsche P. C., Nielsen M. (2011). Screening for breast cancer with mammography. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 1, Article CD001877. doi:10.1002/14651858.CD001877. pub4.

Gould S. J. (1992). Bully for brontosaurus: Further reflections in natural history. New York: Penguin Books.

Graham I. D., Stiell I. G., Laupacis A., et al. (2001). Awareness and use of the Ottawa ankle and knee rules in 5 countries: Can publication alone be enough to change practice? Annals of Emergency Medicine 37, 259–266.

Gurian E. A., Kinnamon D. D., Henry J. J., Waisbren S. E. (2006). Expanded new-born screening for biomedical disorders: The effect of a false-positive result. Pediatrics 117, 1915–1921.

Haag L., Stern E. (2003). In search of the benefits of learning Latin. Journal of Educational Psychology 95, 174–178.

Hair M., Renaud K. V., Ramsay J. (2007). The influence of self-esteem and locus of control on perceived email-related stress. Computers in Human Behavior, 23, 2791–2803.

Haldane A. G. (2012). The dog and the Frisbee. Speech, Jackson Hole, August 31, 2012. www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2012/596.aspx.

Hale W. R. (1996). Can the Ottawa ankle decision rules be applied in the United States? Western Journal of Medicine 164, 363.

Harris R., and Lohr K. N. (2002). Screening for prostate cancer: An update of the evidence for the U. S. Preventive Services Task Force. Annals of Internal Medicine 137, 917–929.

Hecht S. S., Kassie, F., Hatsukami D. K. (July 2009). Chemoprevention of lung carcinogenesis in addicted smokers and ex-smokers. Nature Reviews Cancer 9, 476–488.

Hertwig R., Davis J. N., Sulloway F. (2002). Parental investment: How an equity motive can produce inequality. Psychological Bulletin 128, 728–745.

Hertwig R., Hoffrage U., the ABC Research Group. (2013). Simple heuristics for a social world. New York: Oxford University Press.

Hewlett J., Waisbren S. E. (2006). A review of the psychosocial effects of false-positive results on parents and current communication practices in newborn screening. Journal of Inherited Metabolic Disease 29, 677–682.

Hoffman R. M., Lewis C. L., Pignone M. P., Couper M. P., Barry M. J., Elmore J. G. et al. (2010). Decision making processes for breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer screening: The DECISIONS survey. Medical Decision Making 30, 53S – 64S.

Hoffrage U., Gigerenzer G. (1998). Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences. Academic Medicine 73, 538–540. doi:10. 097/00001888–99805000–00024.

Hoffrage U., Lindsey S., Hertwig R., and Gigerenzer G. (2000). Communicating statistical information. Science 290, 2261–2262. doi:10.1126/ science.290.5500.2261.

Holmes M. D., Chen W. Y., Feskanich D., Kroenke C. H., and Colditz G. A. (2005). Physical activity and survival after breast cancer diagnosis. Journal of the American Medical Association 293, 2479–2486.

Huff D. (1959). How to lie with statistics. New York: Norton.

col1_0 (2005). Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Medicine 2, 696–701.

Jefferson T., Jones M. A., Doshi P., Del Mar C. B., Heneghan C. J., Hama R., Thompson M. J. (2012). Neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing and treating influenza in healthy adults and children. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 1. Art. No.: CD008965. doi:10.1002/14651858.

Kahneman D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. London: Allen Lane.

Kahneman D., Tversky A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology 3, 430–454.

Kammerl R., Hirsch?user L., Rosenkranz M., Schwinge C., Hein S., Wartherg L. (2012). EXIF – Excessive Internetnutzung in Familien [Excessive Internet use in families]. Berlin: Bundesministerium f?r Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend.

Kant E. (1784). Beantwortung der Frage: Was ist Aufkl?rung? Berlinische Monatsschrift, Dezember-Heft 481–494.

Kattah J. C., Talkad A. V., Wang D. Z., Hsieh Y. – H., Newman-Toker D. E. (2009). HINTS to diagnose stroke in the acute vestibular syndrome. Stroke 40, 3504–3510.

Knaul F., Frenk J. (2010). Latin America’s silent breast cancer epidemic. Harvard School of Public Health, Office of the Dean. Retrieved from http://134.174.190.199/administrative-offices/deans-office/julio-frenk-dean/silent-breast-cancer-epidemic/index.html.

Knight F. (1921). Risk, uncertainty and profit. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Co.

Kohn L. T., Corrigan J. M., Donaldson M. S. (Eds.) (2000). To err is human: Building a safer health system. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Kr?mer W. (2011). Die Angst der Woche: Warum wir uns vor den falschen Dingen f?rchten. Munich: Piper.

Krauss S., Wang X. T. (2003). The psychology of the Monty Hall problem: Discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 132, 3–22.

Kruglanski A., Gigerenzer G. (2011). Intuitive and deliberate judgments are based on common principles. Psychological Review 118, 97–109.

Kritzman M., Page S., Turkington D. (2010). In defense of optimization: The myth of 1/N. Financial Analysis Journal 66, 31–39.

Krogsb?ll L. T., J?rgensen K. J., Gr?nh?j Larsen C., and G?tzsche P. C. (2012). General health checks in adults for reducing morbidity and mortality from disease. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 10, CD009009. doi:10.1002/14651858. CD009009.pub2.

Kr?ger L., Daston L., Heidelberger M. (Eds.) (1987). The probabilistic revolution, Vol. 1: Ideas in history. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Kr?ger L., Gigerenzer G., Morgan M. S. (Eds.) (1987). The probabilistic revolution: Vol. II: Ideas in the sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Kurz-Milcke E., Gigerenzer G., Martignon L. (2008). Transparency in risk communication: Graphical and analog tools. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1128, 18–28.

Kurz-Milcke E., Gigerenzer G., Martignon L. (2011). Risiken durchschauen: Graphische und analoge Werkzeuge. Stochastik in der Schule 31, 8–16.

Labarge A. S., McCaffrey R. J., Brown T. A. (2003). Neuropsychologists’ ability to determine the predictive value of diagnostic tests. Clinical Neuropsychology 18, 165–175.

Larson C. A. (2011). Evidence-based medicine: An analysis of prophylactic bilateral oophorectomy at time of hysterectomy for benign conditions. Current Oncology 18, 13–15.

LeDoux J. E. (1996). The emotional brain. New York: Simon and Schuster.

Lee C. I., Haims A. H., Monico E. P., Brink J. A., Forman H. P. (2004). Diagnostic CT scans: Assessment of patient, physician, and radiologist awareness of radiation dose and possible risk. Radiology 231, 393–398.

Leeman R. F., Fischler C., Rozin P. (2011). Medical doctors’ attributes and beliefs about diet and health are more like those of their lay countrymen (France, Germany, Italy, UK, and U.S.A) than those of doctors in other countries. Appetite 56, 558–563.

Leibniz G. W. (1951). The horizon of human doctrine. In P. P. Wiener (Ed.). Selections (p. 73–77). New York: Scribner’s Sons. (Original work published 1690.)

Lewis M. (2010). The big short. New York: Norton.

Lin E. C. (2010). Radiation risk from medical imaging. Mayo Clinic Proceedings 85, 142–146.

Liu Y., Hu F., Li D. (2011). Does physical activity reduce the risk of prostate cancer? European Urology 60, 1029–1044.

Longnecker M. P., Newcomb P. A., Mittendorf R., Greenberg E. R., Clapp R. W., Bogdan G. F., et al. (1995). Risk of breast cancer in relation to lifetime alcohol consumption. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 87, 923–929.

Luchins E. H., Luchins A. S. (1979). Introduction to the Einstein– ertheimer correspondence. Methodology and Science 12, 165–202.

MacDonald K. L., Jackson J. B., Bowman R. J., Polesky H. F., Rhame F. S., Balfour H. H., et al. (1989). Performance characteristics of serologic tests for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV?1) antibody among Minnesota blood donors. Public health and clinical implications. Annals of Internal Medicine 110, 617–621.

Maidique M. (2012). The leader’s toolbox: A deconstruction of high-stakes CEO decision making. Poster presentation at the meeting of the Society of Judgment and Decision making, Seattle. Retrieved from onlineappsdev.fiu.edu/lead/news/article/38.

Makridakis S., Hogarth R. M., Gaba A. (2009). Forecasting and uncertainty in theeconomic and business world. International Journal of Forecasting 25, 794–812.

Malkiel B. G. (2007). A random walk down Wall Street. New York: Norton.

Mandelbrot B., Taleb N. N. (2005, July 11). How finance gurus get risk all wrong. Fortune 99–100.

Martignon L., Vitouch O., Takezawa M., Forster M. R. (2011). Naive and yet enlightened: From natural frequencies to fast and frugal trees. In G. Gigerenzer, R. Hertwig, and T. Pachur (Eds.), Heuristics: The foundations of adaptive behavior (p. 134–150). New York: Oxford University Press.

McCollough C. H. (2011). Defending the use of medical imaging. Health Physics 100, 318–321.

McManus I. C., Richards P., Winder B. C., Sproston K. A. (1998). Clinical experience, performance in final examinations, and learning style in medical students: Prospective study. British Medical Journal 316, 345–350.

Mill J. S. (1869). On liberty. London: Longman, Roberts and Green.

Miller G. (2000). The mating mind: How sexual choice shaped the evolution of human nature. London: William Heinemann.

Mintzberg H. (2009). Managing. San Francisco: Berrett-Koeler.

Monti M., Martignon L., Pelligra V., Gugliemetti C. (2012). The insurance by my side: Better risk assessment for smarter insurance decisions (CAREFIN Working Paper No. 3/2011). Milan: Universitа Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.

Mooi W. J., Peeper D. S. (2006). Oncogene-induced cell senescence – Halting on the road to cancer. New England Journal of Medicine 355, 1037–1046.

Multmeier J. (2012). Representations facilitate Bayesian reasoning: Computational facilitation and ecological design revisited (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Free University: Berlin.

Munro E. (2004). A simpler way to understand the results of risk assessment instruments. Children and Youth Services Review 25, 873–883.

Muris, P. Merckelbach H., Meesters C., Van Lier P. (1997). What do children fear most often? Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry 28, 263–267.

Nass-Griegoleit I., Schultz-Zehden B., Klusendick M., Diener J., Schulte, H. (2009). Studie belegt hohe Akzeptanz des Mammographie-Screenings bei Frauen: Ergebnisse der ersten repr?sentativen Studie in Deutschland. Frauenarzt 50, 494–501.

Neuberg S. L., Newsom J. T. (1993). Personal need for structure: Individual differences in the desire for simple structure. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 65, 113–131.

Nida-R?melin J. 2011. Die Optimierungsfalle. Munich: Irisiana.

Nisbett R. E. (2003). The geography of thought: How Asians and Westerners think differently… and why. New York: Free Press.

Nisbett R. E. (2009). Intelligence and how to get it. New York: Norton.

Nystr?m L. (2002). Long-term effects of mammography screening: Updated overview of the Swedish randomized trials. Lancet 359, 909–919.

?hman A., Mineka S. (2001). Fears, phobias, and preparedness: Toward an evolved module of fear and fear learning. Psychological Review 108, 483–522.

Ophir E., Nass C., Wagner A. D. (2009). Cognitive control in media multitaskers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, 15583–15587.

Orpana H. M, Berthelot J. M., Kaplan M. S., Freny D. H., McFarland B., Ross N. A. (2008). BMI and mortality: Results from a national longitudinal study of Canadian adults. Obesity 18, 214–218.

Orrell D. (2010). Economyths. London: Icon Books.

Ortmann A., Gigerenzer G., Borges B., Goldstein D. G. (2008). The recognition heuristic: A fast and frugal way to investment choice? In C. R. Plott and V. L. Smith (Eds.), Handbook of experimental economics results: Vol. 1. P. 993–1003. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

Paulos J. A. (1988). Innumeracy: Mathematical illiteracy and its consequences. New York: Vintage Books.

Payer L. (1996). Medicine and culture. New York: Holt.

Peto J. (2001). Cancer epidemiology in the last century and the next decade. Nature 411, 390–395.

Piatelli-Palmarini M. (1991). Probability blindness: Neither rational nor capricious. Bostonia, March/April, 28–35.

Piatelli-Palmarini M. (1994). Inevitable illusions: How mistakes of reason rule our minds. New York: Wiley.

Picano E., Matucci-Cerinic M. (2011). Unnecessary radiation exposure from medical imaging in the rheumatology patient. Rheumatology 50, 1537–1539.

Polya G. (1954). Mathematics and plausible reasoning (Vol. 1). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Posner R. A. (2009). A failure of capitalism. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Proctor R. N. (2012). The history of the discovery of the cigarette – lung cancer link: Evidentiary traditions, corporate denial, global toll. Tobacco Control 21, 87–91.

Pronovost P., Needham D., Berenholtz S., Sinopoli D., Chu H., Cosgrove S., et al. (2006). An intervention to decrease catheter– related bloodstream infections in the ICU. New England Journal of Medicine 355, 2725–2732.

Quart A. (2003). Branded: The buying and selling of teenagers. Cambridge, MA: Perseus Publishing.

Quigley C. (1996). The corpse: A history. London: McFarland.

Rampura V., Hapani S., Wu S. (2011). Treatment-related mortality with Bevacizumab in cancer patients: A meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association 305, 487–494.

Rebonato R. (2012). Taking liberties: A critical examination of libertarian paternalism. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.

Renn O. (2007). Die Multidisziplinarit?t des Themas Risiko [The multidisciplinarity of the topic «risk»]. In Berlin-Brandenburgische Akademie der Wissenschaften (Ed.). Risiko (p. 71–75). Berlin.

Reyna V. F., Brainerd C. J. (2007). The importance of mathematics in health and human judgment: Numeracy, risk communication, and medical decision making. Learning and Individual Differences 17, 147–159.

Ripley A. (2009). The unthinkable: Who survives when disaster strikes – and why. New York: Three Rivers Press.

Sahlberg P. (2011). Finnish lessons: What can the world learn from educational change in Finland? New York: Teachers College Press.

Savage L. J. (1954). The foundations of statistics. NY: Dover.

Schirrmacher F. (2009). Payback. Munich: Blessing.

Schneider S. (2010, June 29). Homo economicus – or more like Homer Simpson? Deutsche Bank Research. Retrieved from www.dbresearch.com.

Schroeder F. H., et al. (2012). Prostate-cancer mortality at 11 years of follow -up. New England Journal of Medicine 366, 981–990.

Sch?tze M. (2011). Alcohol attributable burden of incidence of cancer in eight European countries based on results from prospective cohort study. British Medical Journal 342, d1584.

Schwartz D. T. (2007). Counter-point: Are we really ordering too many CT scans? Western Journal of Emergency Medicine 9, 120–122.

Schwartz B., Ward A., Monterosso J., Lyubomirsky S., White K., and Lehman D. R. (2002). Maximizing versus satisficing: Happiness is a matter of choice. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 83, 1178–1197.

Schwartz L. M., Woloshin S. (2011). The drug facts box: Making informed decisions about prescription drugs possible. In G. Gigerenzer and J. A. Muir Gray (Eds.). Better doctors, better patients: Envisioning health care 2020 (p. 233–242). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Schwartz L. M., Woloshin S., Welch H. G. (1999). Risk communication in clinical practice: Putting cancer in context. Monograph of the National Cancer Institute 25, 124–133.

Schwartz L. M., Woloshin S., Welch H. G. (2009). Using a drug facts box to communicate drug benefits and harms. Annals of Internal Medicine 150, 516–527.

Schwartz L. M., Woloshin S., Fowler F. J., Welch H. G. (2004). Enthusiasm for cancer screening in the United States. Journal of the American Medical Association 291, 71–78.

Sedrakyan A., Shih C. (2007). Improving depiction of benefits and harms: Analyses of studies of well-known therapeutics and review of high-impact medical journals. Medical Care 45, 523–528.

Seligman M. E. P. (1970). On the generality of the laws of learning. Psychological Review 77, 406–418.

Selvin S. (1975). A problem in probability [Letter to the editor]. American Statistician 29, 67.

Shah N. B., Platt S. L. (2008). ALAR A: Is there a cause for alarm? Reducing radiation risk from computed tomography scanning in children. Current Opinion in Pediatrics 20, 243–247.

Sherden W. A. (1998). The fortune sellers. New York: Wiley.

Shibata A., Whittemore A. S. (2001). Re: Prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the United States and the United Kingdom. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 9, 1109–1110.

Siegrist M., Cousin M.-E., Keller C. (2008). Risk communication, prenatal screening, and prenatal diagnosis: The illusion of informed decision making. Journal of Risk Research 11, 87–97.

Sirovich B. E., Welch H. G. (2004). Cervical cancer screening among women without a cervix. Journal of the American Medical Association 291, 2990–2993.

Slovic P. (1987). Perception of risk. Science 236, 280–285. doi:10.1126/science.3563507.

Smith-Bindman R., Lipson J., Marcus R., Kim K.-P., Mahesh M., Gould R., et al. (2009). Radiation dose associated with common computed tomography examinations and the associated lifetime attributable risk of cancer. Archives of Internal Medicine 169, 2078–2086.

Steimle S. (1999). UK’s Tony Blair announces crusade to fight cancer. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 91, 1189.

Steinman M., Shlipak M. G., McPhee S. J. (2001). Of principles and pens: Attitudes and practices of medical house staff toward pharmaceutical industry promotions. American Journal of Medical Genetics 110, 551–557.

Stephen A. E., Segev D. L., Ryan D. P., Mullins M. E., Kim S. H., Schnitzer J. J., Doody D. P. (2003). The diagnosis of acute appendicitis in a pediatric population: To CT or not to CT. Journal of Pediatric Surgery 38, 367–371.

Steurer J., Held U., Schmidt M., Gigerenzer G., Tag, B., Bachmann L. M. (2009). Legal concerns trigger prostate-specific antigen testing. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 15, 390–392. doi:10.1111/ j.1365–2753.20 08. 01024. x.

Stiftung Warentest (2004, February). Urologen im Test: Welchen Nutzen hat der PSA-Test? Stiftung Warentest, 86–89.

Stigler S. M. (1980). Stigler’s law of eponymy. Transactions of the New York Academy of Sciences 39, 147–157.

Stigler S. M. (1983). Who discovered Bayes’ Theorem? American Statistician 37, 290–296.

Stiglitz J. E. (2010). Freefall: America, free markets, and the sinking of the world economy. New York: Norton.

Stine G. J. (1996). Acquired immune deficiency syndrome: Biological, medical, social, and legal issues (2nd ed.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Strayer D. L., Drews F. A., Crouch D. J. (2006). Comparing the cell-phone driver and the drunk driver. Human Factors 48, 381–391.

Studdert D. M., Mello M. M., Sage W. M., DesRoches C. M., Peugh J., Zapert K., Brennan T. A. (2005). Defensive medicine among high-risk specialist physicians in a volatile malpractice environment. Journal of the American Medical Association 293, 2609–2017.

Studdert D. M., Mello M. M., Gawande A. A., Gandhi T. K., Kachalla A., Yoon, C., et al. (2006). Claims, errors, and compensation payments in medical malpractice litigation. New England Journal of Medicine 354, 2024–2033

Taleb N. N. (2004). Fooled by randomness: The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets. London: Thomson.

Taleb N. N., and Blyth, M. (2011). The black swan of Cairo. Foreign Affairs 90, 33–39.

Tankard J. W. (1979). The H. G. Wells quote on statistics: A question of accuracy. Historia Mathematica 6, 30–33.

TAP Study Group (2001). Photodynamic therapy of subfoveal choroidal neovascularization in age-related macular degeneration with verteporfin. Archives of Ophthalmology 119, 198–207.

Tengs T. O., Adams M. E., Pliskin J. S., Safran D. G., Siegel J. E., Weinstein M. C., Graham J. D. (1995). Five-hundred life-saving interventions and their cost-effectiveness. Risk Analysis 15, 369–390.

Tetlock P. E. (2005). Expert political judgment. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Thaler R. H. (1991). Quasi rational economics. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

Thaler R. H., Sunstein C. R. (2008). Nudge. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Todd P. M., Billari F. C., Sim?o J. (2005). Aggregate age-at-marriage patterns from individual mate-search heuristics. Demography 42, 559–574.

Todd P. M., Gigerenzer G., the ABC Research Group. (2012). Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world. New York: Oxford University Press.

Todd P. M., Miller G. F. (1999). From pride and prejudice to persuasion: Satisficing in mate search. In G. Gigerenzer, P. M. Todd, the ABC Research Group. Simple heuristics that make us smart (p. 287–308). New York: Oxford University Press.

Todd P. M., Knutson B., Minard S. L. (in press). Simple heuristics for deciding what to eat. In S. Preston, M. Kringelbach, B. Knutson (Eds.). Interdisciplinary science of consumption. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

T?rngren G., Montgomery H. (2004). Worse than chance? Performance and confidence among professionals and laypeople in the stock market. Journal of Behavioral Finance 5, 148–153.

Trunkey D. D. (2010). Health care reform: What went wrong. Annals of Surgery 252, 417–425.

Tu X. M., Litvak E., Pagano M. (1992). Issues in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) screening programs. American Journal of Epidemiology 136, 244–255.

Turkle S. (2011). Alone together. New York: Basic Books.

Twain M. (2005). Pudd’nhead Wilson. New York: Bantam Classics. (Original work published 1894.)

Twenge J. M., Gentile B., DeWall N., Ma D., Lacefield K., Schurtz D. R. (2010). Birth cohort increases in psychopathology among young Americans, 1938–2007. Clinical Psychology Review 30, 145–154.

Vazquez F., and Federico P. (2012). Bank funding structures and risk (IMF Working Paper 12/29). International Monetary Fund.

Vitouch O., Strauss S., Lading O. (2007). Kognitive T?uschungen durch Prozentangaben: Der Fall der staatlich gef?rderten Pensionsvorsorge (Final Report, OeNB Project No. 11109). Department of Psychology, University of Klagenfurt.

Volz K. G., Gigerenzer G. (2012). Cognitive processes in decision under risk are not the same as in decisions under uncertainty. Frontiers in Decision Neuroscience, 6: 05. doi: 10.3389/ fnins. 2012. 00105.

Wegwarth O., Gaissmaier W., Gigerenzer G. (2011). Deceiving numbers: Survival rates and their impact on doctors’ risk communication. Medical Decision Making 31, 386–394. doi:10.1177/ 0272989X10391469.

Wegwarth O., Schwartz L. M., Woloshin S., Gaissmaier W., Gigerenzer G. (2012). Do physicians understand cancer screening statistics? A national survey of primary care physicians in the United States. Annals of Internal Medicine 156, 340–349.

Welch H. G., Schwartz L. M., Woloshin S. (2000). Are increasing five-year survival rates evidence of success against cancer? Journal of the American Medical Association 283, 2975–2978.

Welch H. G., Schwartz L. M., Woloshin S. (2011). Overdiagnosed: Making people sick in the pursuit of health. Boston, MA: Beacon Press.

Wells H. G. (1938/1994). World Brain. London: Adamantine Press.

Wertheimer M. (1934, Summer). Letter to Albert Einstein. (Summer, 1934). Albert Einstein Archive, Princeton University Library.

Willyard C. (2011). Lifestyle: Breaking the cancer habit. Nature 471, S16 –S17.

Wobker I., Lehmann-Waffenschmidt M., Kenning, P., Gigerenzer G. (2012). What do people know about the economy? A test of minimal economic knowledge in Germany. Manuscript. Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen.

Woloshin S., Schwartz L. M., (2012). How a charity oversells mammography. British Medical Journal 345, e5132. doi:10.1136/ bmj.e5132.

Woloshin S., Schwartz L. M., Welch H. G. (2008). Know your chances: Understanding health statistics. Berkeley: University of California Press.

W?bben M., Wangenheim F. v. (2008). Instant customer base analysis: Managerial heuristics often «get it right». Journal of Marketing 72, 82–93. doi:10.1509/ jmkg.72.3.82.

Yamamoto K. (1979). Children’s ratings of the stressfulness of experiences. Developmental Psychology 15, 581–582.

Young J. M., Glasziou P., Ward J. E. (2002). General practitioners’ self-rating of skills in evidence based medicine: A validation study. British Medical Journal 324, 950–951.

Zhu L., Gigerenzer G. (2006). Children can solve Bayesian problems: The role of representation in mental computation. Cognition 98, 287–308.

Zimmerman F. J., Christakis D. A., Meltzoff A. N. (2007). Associations between media viewing and language development in children under age 2 years. Journal of Pediatrics 151, 364–368.

Данный текст является ознакомительным фрагментом.